" the current assumption set for the regional models has oil settling back to $35-40/barrel"

Just to state the obivous in question form, "Did someone lose some gray cells our of their head?"

Oil is going to be where it is for a while. Even if the oil companies dropped profits (Generally 7-20 cents a gallon) and the taxes (About 25-50 cents depending on state/region) that still leaves us with a significantly rising gas cost. Just the competitiveness with the Chinese for oil is going to keep increasing the price for the near future.

With the Environmentalists & others of that ilk seeing this as a rallying cry to limit or get rid of our reliance on it I'm sure they won't be bothered that much by rising oil prices.

Me on the other hand see this as the Market forces equalizing a subsidized and falsely created oil independant automobile reliant America. We've basically created the problem we've been growing ourselves into.

All this planning won't amount to a hill of beans though if the market/people of the area don't get even MORE behind it than they are now. Portland is an amazing place with it's transportation mix but even ole' PDX is not going to be able to curve real oil demand in the area without prices going up.

Self sufficiency as a region should be our first goal... Not importing but exporting.

We also need to take advantage of the expected growth of the region. We should be asking how we and the region can benefit from so many educated people moving here in the next decades. Plan ahead/be proactive and all that...

Transportation is a big part of all this but only a part. One thing to consider might be regional rail systems on existing lines....

Also, wireless communications should be a goverment project.

And why not tax the freeways? Especially on the Columbia...no more free rides for taxless Vancoucerites.

Plan for mixed use/walkable neighborhoods *everywhere*...even in the 'burbs.

Create a regional goverment like Metro or expand Metro's jurisdiction to include the whole region (govt camp to Astoria and the Columbia to Woodburn?)

Just some rambling ideas....

Chris -

I think you are on to an important issue. Much of the transportation planning gets done based on modeling that promises a level of certainty that it can't deliver. And some of the largest uncertainties, actual land uses, are treated as fixed.

What happens if much of the planned "industrial" land in the central eastside developes instead as Pearl/Riverplace condominiums and retail? Or if the industrial development in Damascus never actually happens because the city of Damascus decides large lot residential development is preferable or there is no real market for industrial land in that area?

If you look at the New Seasons parking lot on Interstate next to the MAX stop you can see that the political will to actually follow through on planned development, or even its basic principals, wilts quickly once there is an actual developer ready to go whose plans don't conform to the master plan. The same thing happened in Woodburn. The same thing may well happen with Portland Meadows.

Yet transportation planning assumes none of those political compromises will have an impact on the need for transportation facilities. And, what is worse, is it assumes transportation investments won't have an impact on the development choices.

You should start to look at scenarios and develop resiliency - assuming uncertainty instead of certainty. Then, instead of assuming the land use is fixed, you assume that the market will at least in part determine land use based on the opportunities your transportation investments provide.

"What do you think would make our region more resilient against potential external forces for the next 20-50 years?"

1. Build out the bicycle infrastructure to allow people to get around under their own locomotion. Biycles don't consume oil, and they could even potentially be manufactured locally using local resources.
2. Extend our public transportation system so that all major destinations in the metropolitan area are served with high quality transit (as per previous regional plan specifications).
3. Continue to build local electrical-generation capabilities that allow the region to produce its own power -- tidal, wind, solar, geothermal... did I mention wind? New wind-turbine technology can be installed on roof-tops, and can be as effective as solar roofs in generation power for that building.
4. Build the ability to produce bio-diesel. Make it a regional goal for our publicly-owned diesel engines to run on 100% locally-grown biodiesel. OSU is developing technology to produce biodiesel micro-reactors, which will alow us to transform farm waste into fuel. Harvest the Willamette Valley's agricultural waste & surplus to run Tri-Met's remaining bus fleet. Convert the entire bus fleet to biodiesel/electric hybrid vehicles.
5. Continue to protect agricultural land in the state, and invest in strategies to gain more productivity from each organically-farmed acre using multi-cropping (OK, not a specifically regional strategy, but still relevant).
6. Continue to make the land use/transportation connection, to build employment into existing neighborhoods, to tread on the Smart Growth path and otherwise minimize the need for long daily commutues. More housing in employment centers; more employment in housing areas; more mixed-use neighborhoods; more grocery stores within walking distance of homes. More bicycle routes to allow people to bike around, including bicycle freeways and bicycle grade separation at major intersection.
7. Enhance the ability for the region to produce its own streetcars, automobiles, bicycles and other transportation equipment locally, according to local specifications, in an energy-efficient manner that grows the local economy, reduces the need for commutes, and minimizes sensitivity to the whims of external forces.
8. Enact a regional gas tax, to pay for some of these necessary improvements while at the same time offering an incentive to use them by raising the price of fuel.
9. Start building that statewide electric train system to connect our communities using a technology that can be built locally and run using power produced within the state.
10. Coordinate all of these activities in such a manner that no citizen is extremely disadvantaged in the process. i.e. low-income citizens receive special assistance with making the transition to a less carbon-intensive lifestyle.