Following up on our initial questions about cases in which the Nextbus arrival information system used by Portland Streetcar might be not entirely accurate, two PSU class project teams took their own look.
I had a chance to sit in on the team project presentations, which are now posted online.
The headline is that while one team was a little harsher than the other, they essentially found that Nextbus is generally accurate but that there are exception cases.
Both teams were limited to manually collected data. I think the next logical step is some kind of automated data collection process that can produce a very large data set which can be mined to help sort out the specific situations in which the system doesn’t provide good customer information so we can address it with the vendor.
It might also be interesting to compare the accuracy of Nextbus’ system with that of TriMet’s Transit Tracker, since replacing Nextbus with TriMet’s technology is probably an option in the future.
Big thank yous to both student teams!
18 responses to “Deeper Dive on Nextbus”
I’d like to echo Chris’s big thanks to the student teams … I think these reports show that there is good reason to investigate more closely with a larger data set.
– Bob R.
I have used Transit Tracker for more than a year and found that it is very accurate. You have to have a cell phone in most cases, but it makes trip planning so much easier (i.e. should I just walk to my destination, take a different bus? etc).
I’ve always said the bigger issue is the reader boards simply not working (either the clock is ‘stuck’, an abundance of dead pixels, etc). One of these days i’ll go through the entire route and take pictures of the signs to show this…
MRB –
When talking about stuck signs and dead pixels, are you referring to the streetcar route (which uses NextBus as a vendor), or a MAX line which has Transit Tracker?
I do wish the Streetcar had the same convenient tracking system that transit tracker provides.
On an unrelated note, I am wondering if anyone out there can explain why the Streetcar often has long delays mid-route. Most recently, I boarded at the South waterfront last week and one stop later, the driver announced that we would be sitting for 14 minutes. Does this only happen in that part of town?
Can you recall the date and close to the exact time? (The number of the streetcar vehicle could help a lot, too). I can’t promise anything, but I can pass on your question to streetcar management. If there was an incident, they may have a record.
The streetcar gets bogged down most often heading eastbound on Lovejoy. Currently, Lovejoy is a 2-way street with only one lane in each direction. (Thus, any transit vehicle, bus or streetcar, would be stuck in this traffic without the ability to pass.)
Chris may be able to give more information about this, but there is a consensus forming in the neighborhood association toward reconfiguring Lovejoy as a 2-lane one-way street eastbound, with Northrup becoming one-way westbound, forming a couplet.
This should allow traffic to move more freely for all modes, and allow individual motorists as well as bicyclists to pass stopped transit vehicles.
I believe support for this hinges on how the upcoming eastside streetcar loop extension is configured as it comes down from the Broadway bridge onto Lovejoy.
– Bob R.
Nope, I’m referring to the streetcar stops… in particular the westbound stop on the park blocks seems to be a frequent violator, as well as the last southbound stop on 10th/11th. I’ll post a photo essay later this week (at which time, of course, all signs will be working flawlessly).
One of these days i’ll go through the entire route and take pictures of the signs to show this…
I think we’ve dealt with most of the ‘stuck’ issues – they were cellular radios that weren’t reliable. If there are other issues, I’d love to know about them!
I do wish the Streetcar had the same convenient tracking system that transit tracker provides.
Try Portland Transport’s Transit Surfer, which provides an integrated view of TriMet and Streetcar.
On an unrelated note, I am wondering if anyone out there can explain why the Streetcar often has long delays mid-route. Most recently, I boarded at the South waterfront last week and one stop later, the driver announced that we would be sitting for 14 minutes. Does this only happen in that part of town?
I suspect you had the pleasure of waiting through one of the drivers’ bathroom breaks, mandated every two hours by the union contract. We try to schedule these at the maintenance facility with a relief driver, but sometimes they wind up happening at the southern end of the route.
I boarded at the South waterfront last week and one stop later, the driver announced that we would be sitting for 14 minutes.
It didn’t occur to me to ask (until Chris mentioned bathroom breaks), but when you boarded was it in the southbound direction? The southern-most stop is a scheduled layover point.
– Bob R.
If you see any NextBus signs (as opposed to the TriMet ones) where it is just showing the clock or has numerous dead pixels, please let us know. We will fix any problems that we are notified of. You can simply send e-mail to feedback@nextbus.com .
– Michael Smith
– Director of Engineering
– NextBus
Michael, thanks for joining the conversation. Would you like to comment on our current working hypothesis, which is that when traffic conditions slow the Streetcar (often in the PM peak), the NextBus prediction algorithm DOES NOT look at the performance of recent trips, but continues to use some kind of daily average to estimate the rate of progress?
If I read correctly this thread began with application of these systems to BUSES….
which seems to be riddled with intrinsic limitations…..
(1) It’s only as accessible and affordable as a cell phone….which is not good, mine for example has an aversion to trees and rain, and won’t work at my house….and what portion of Trimet ridership can afford to buy) cell phones;
(2) Projected bus arrival times all assume that no untoward event occurs between the bus and the rider…..no traffic pileups, no accidents, no police actions, no onboard incidents, hell, not even a potty break or otherwise inexplicable interval where the driver parks an idling bus full of passengers and reads the paper for five minutes;
(3) Projected bus arrival times, even if accurate, do nothing whatever for the prospective passenger if the bus “arrives” and departs, blowing right by the helpless passenger;
(4) Projected bus arrival times, even if accurate, do nothing whatever for the prospective passenger if the bus arrives and offers itself for boarding, but is so totally packed as to promise an ordeal the passenger isn’t willing to undertake.
Have I missed something here?
QUIT WASTING MONEY ON THIS HIGH-TECH BOONDOGGLE AND PUT IT INTO FREQUENT, RELIABLE BUSES.
elee, I’m sorry if you don’t find the arrival time information useful, but I know that a large number of people do. I’m afraid no tool is ever useful to 100% of the people.
Full buses or driving past stops are rare (but very painful) incidents in my experience.
elle,
hehe,
funny post!
I’ll tell ya this much; if you hear;
‘SCHEDULED AT’
for all arrivals rather than actual times;
BE WARNED, YOU MIGHT BE STANDING THERE A LONG LONG TIME!
Actually I love the transit tracker, its reliable 90% of the time.
Of course if you don’t have a cell phone its of no use and if the stop doesn’t have the stop id listed on it it’s a pain in the ass.
HEY CHRIS, WHY DOENST TRIMET HAVE STOP ID’S LISTED ON ALL THE STOPS?
The only real flaw with the tracker is that IT DOES NOT let you know if a bus has broke down or the max is DEAD SOMEWHERE.
Bob,
Both times I experienced the delay the car was headed northbound just before leaving the south waterfront (right outside the hotel/David Evans).
It may have been a coincidence, but very frustrating! I took a cab last time I had to be down there for a meeting.
There are roughly 8,000 stops in TriMet’s system and getting Stop ID numbers posted on all of them is a long-term project. It will be done, it’s just going to take a long time.
elee should be happy to know that TransitTracker is actually a very inexpensive project, especially since it has proven very popular: nearly 900,000 calls were made into the system in November. People don’t need cell phones to make use of the system, because it is also useful for people calling in from home or work, before they leave for the bus stop or MAX station. But a surprisingly high number of TriMet riders (well over 75%) already have cell phones.
If I read correctly this thread began with application of these systems to BUSES…
Actually, it was the application to streetcars, but it’s easy to get confused because the product is called “NextBus” but the first application in Portland is just on the streetcars.
TriMet’s own separate system, Transit Tracker, was mentioned in the context of perhaps using it on streetcars in the future, which in theory could provide for better integration system-wide. But which of the two systems performs better at making actual predictions? Which is less costly to implement? Etc.
Thanks for the replies, folks. I for one will not trust this thing, because it comes from the same folks who use my tax money to print schedules proclaiming I can get from my house to work downtown in 17 minutes, and I know that in reality it takes 45 minutes plus. Hell, even drivers acknowledge that Trimet’s assertions are lies, I’ve seen the posts on this and other blogs.
Chris Smith, if you want to research the frequency of overfilled buses and/or skipped stops, I’ll show you where I used to wait for the bus in the morning. My guess is this stuff only ever gets reported if (1) some passenger takes (wastes) the time to report it to Trimet, and (2) the report includes number of offending bus, time, and location. Unless of course you believe that the drivers are, like, reporting themselves for this stuff….