The Fleet Replacement Problem

Jim Mayer has an interesting piece in yesterday’s O about particulate emissions from diesel, especially off-road equipment.

The interesting part to me is how long it takes to replace the installed base of equipment:

…thanks to slow turnover, the health benefits from the new standards won’t be realized until 2030.

This is referencing rules that will take effect in 2015. So even if we put the rules in effect tomorrow, it would take 15 years to get the main benefit, because it will take that long for a majority of equipment to be replaced.

We have exactly the same problem with fuel efficiency, which is why to get ready for Peak Oil, we need new vehicles to be radically more fuel efficient NOW. The gas (or diesel) guzzlers already on the road are still going to be with us for a while.

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